Market Hunch Deepens as International and Home Pressures Persist:
In October 2024, the Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex suffered notable drops of 6.22% and 5.83%, making this their weakest month-to-month efficiency since March 2020. Pushed by a mixture of international and home pressures, Indian equities declined sharply, with key indices hitting new lows for the month. This downward momentum has continued into November, however a brief uplift seen through the Muhurat buying and selling day.
The market confronted persistent weak point as a consequence of softer-than-expected Q2 FY25 earnings, which forged doubt on the tempo of financial progress. Many firms reported earnings beneath expectations, resulting in a wave of earnings downgrades and dampening investor sentiment. Among the many Nifty firms which have disclosed outcomes, earnings remained principally stagnant year-over-year, highlighting strain from subdued company efficiency in key sectors.
October additionally noticed one of many highest month-to-month international portfolio investor (FPI) outflows on report, with ₹1.14 lakh crore withdrawn from the secondary market, surpassing outflows seen on the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regardless of this development, FPIs remained energetic in main markets, with almost ₹20,000 crore invested, probably reflecting selective alternatives amid excessive valuations within the secondary market.
The report outflows contributed to a weakening rupee, which dropped to an all-time low of ₹84.20 in opposition to the US greenback. Moreover, China’s upcoming potential stimulus announcement, might additional affect capital flows from Indian markets.
On the home entrance, indicators of slowing city demand added to the market’s challenges, as rising dwelling prices and meals inflation have constrained client spending, eroding buying energy Heightened market volatility has additionally been pushed by exterior components, together with the strengthening US greenback, Center East geopolitical tensions, and rising crude oil costs.
Sectoral efficiency:
Throughout Indian equities, October introduced vital sectoral corrections in response to the broader market decline. The monetary sector confronted challenges amid considerations over slowing credit score demand and softened earnings progress. The patron items sector noticed pressures as a consequence of a noticeable pressure on city client spending, pushed by rising inflation and better dwelling prices. The automotive sector equally skilled a slowdown, with diminished client demand and elevated enter prices impacting gross sales and manufacturing. Infrastructure and engineering sectors struggled as authorities spending tapered off, constraining progress inside these areas. Lastly, vitality and commodities have been impacted by broader market volatility and a latest enhance in crude oil costs, which intensified the pressure on these sectors.
Within the following sections, we offer a extra complete examination and detailed insights of some main sectors:
Auto:
In October 2024, the auto sector displayed blended outcomes throughout segments, reflecting each progress and challenges. The 2-wheeler (2W) market skilled robust momentum, with home wholesale volumes growing by round 11% year-over-year (YoY) and 6% month-over-month (MoM). Exports on this phase additionally rose by 23% YoY and a pair of% MoM. Home passenger automobile (PV) gross sales grew modestly at 1-3% YoY and noticed a 10-12% MoM increase, pushed primarily by choose producers, though positive factors have been partially offset by underperformance amongst others. Business automobiles (CVs) confirmed steady gross sales YoY, with a MoM enhance of 9%, largely supported by excessive bus volumes, whereas medium and heavy truck volumes confronted pressures.
Inside the PV phase, home gross sales posted a modest progress price of roughly 3% YoY, though efficiency assorted. Some segments, comparable to SUVs, noticed sturdy progress, whereas others, significantly entry-level automobiles, reported declines. Robust PV gross sales progress was noticed amongst a number of producers, though choose manufacturers reported flat or damaging outcomes, tempering general positive factors.
Within the CV phase, home dispatches rose barely, up 1% YoY and 9% MoM. Whereas demand for buses drove progress, medium and heavy industrial vans lagged, with progress forecasts for FY25 remaining low as a consequence of excessive base results, restricted fleet utilization, and average substitute demand. Anticipated progress for CVs is anticipated to stay within the low single digits.
The 2-wheeler phase continued its robust efficiency, with general dispatches rising roughly 13% YoY. Home 2W gross sales elevated by 11% YoY, whereas exports additionally noticed a notable rise. Elements contributing to 2W progress embrace pent-up demand in rural areas, new mannequin introductions, and festive season promotions.
Within the tractor sector, home wholesale volumes recorded an encouraging uptick of 29% YoY for October, supported by favorable agricultural circumstances comparable to robust monsoon rainfall, improved reservoir ranges, and a profitable Kharif harvest. These circumstances, together with favorable Rabi season phrases, are anticipated to bolster tractor demand within the coming months.
Wanting forward, the medium-term outlook favors progress within the 2W phase over PV and tractor gross sales, whereas the CV phase stays cautious, with efficiency seemingly constrained by financial and industry-specific components.
IT:
In Q2 FY25, the IT providers sector (together with Tier-1 and Tier-2 firms) noticed continued restoration in working efficiency, with median sequential progress at 2.0% in fixed foreign money, up from 1.2% within the earlier quarter. Reported progress in USD phrases additionally improved, reaching 2.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 4.3% year-over-year (YoY), benefiting from favorable foreign money results. Development momentum was broad-based, marking two consecutive quarters of stability, although some asset-intensive and consumer-focused verticals displayed softer outcomes.
The deal atmosphere remained sturdy, with deal whole contract worth (TCV) for each Tier-1 and Tier-2 corporations near USD 20 billion, displaying solely a minor lower from the earlier quarter’s USD 21 billion. Elevated discretionary spending and short-term initiatives are anticipated to boost deal conversions, regardless of difficult macroeconomic circumstances. Consequently, annual contract worth (ACV) is prone to rise, aided by bettering conversion charges.
Headcount additions confirmed substantial progress, indicating optimistic mid-term demand developments, with many firms attaining optimum utilization and lowering subcontractor reliance. Nevertheless, ongoing geopolitical tensions might decelerate gross sales cycles and introduce further scrutiny round deal closures. Whereas margins confirmed enchancment past expectations in Q2, the scope for additional positive factors in FY25 could also be restricted as a consequence of wage hikes deferred to the second half and absolutely optimized price levers.
Income progress for Tier-1 firms was at 1.4% QoQ in fixed foreign money, whereas Tier-2 firms outperformed at 2.9% QoQ, reflecting higher momentum within the latter. Development throughout main verticals comparable to BFSI, retail, manufacturing, and communications aligned for the second consecutive quarter, displaying constant sectoral restoration. Working margins have been steady, with Tier-1 firms attaining a slight 20 foundation level enchancment, whereas Tier-2 noticed a modest 30 foundation level decline as a consequence of compensation changes, which most corporations absorbed with restricted affect on margins.
Wanting ahead, IT providers firms sometimes see stronger efficiency within the first half of the fiscal yr, with the second half usually impacted by seasonal furloughs and holidays. This yr, most Tier-1 corporations count on an analogous furlough impact to final yr, although some firms anticipate a milder affect. Sure Tier-2 corporations are optimistic about attaining industry-leading progress, pushed by a robust deal pipeline and progress in choose verticals..
Metals:
In October 2024, Indian metal costs noticed a modest enhance of two.1% month-over-month (MoM), reaching ₹48,000 per tonne, whereas Chinese language metal costs surged by 7.4% MoM to $510 per tonne. The rise in metal costs was accompanied by a 4.9% enhance in coking coal costs, which reached $170 per tonne, pushed by expectations of bettering metal demand. Nevertheless, Indian metal manufacturing in September 2024 decreased by 4.9% to 11.7 million tonnes, whereas Chinese language metal manufacturing additionally declined by 1.0% MoM to 77 million tonnes. International metal manufacturing confirmed an analogous downward development, falling by 0.8% MoM to 144 million tonnes.
One notable growth was the 6.8% MoM and 25.9% YoY enhance in Chinese language metal exports, which reached the very best degree lately. This surge in exports, pushed by weak home demand in China, stays a priority for the worldwide metal market, as elevated exports from China might put strain on costs in different areas.
On the enter aspect, home iron ore costs noticed a major enhance of 25.4% MoM to ₹7,400 per tonne, whereas worldwide iron ore costs declined by 4.3% MoM to $96 per tonne. Moreover, manganese costs fell by 25.6% MoM to ₹16,041 per tonne, reflecting a blended development in metal inputs.
Within the non-ferrous metals market, costs trended downward in October 2024. Aluminium costs decreased by 0.7% MoM to $2,592 per tonne, whereas copper and zinc costs fell by 3.3% and 0.8% MoM, respectively, to $9,506 and $3,031 per tonne. These declines have been attributed to weaker demand from consuming industries.
Wanting forward, China’s metal manufacturing decline and report export ranges point out weaker home demand as a consequence of an ongoing slowdown within the Chinese language economic system. Nevertheless, the financial stimulus launched by China in October 2024 has supplied a optimistic affect on each international and home metal costs. The sharp will increase in coking coal and home iron ore costs might put strain on the margins of some Indian metal firms within the coming quarter. Regardless of these challenges, home metal demand in India stays robust and is anticipated to develop by 8-10% in FY25.
Whereas the outlook for home metal demand stays optimistic, the excessive valuations of metal firms restrict additional upside potential. Consequently, the outlook for the metal sector stays impartial.
Chemical compounds:
The chemical sector skilled a broad enhance in costs throughout October 2024, with a number of merchandise displaying optimistic month-over-month (MoM) motion. A notable instance was the numerous rise in caustic soda lye costs, which surged from ₹35/kg to ₹43/kg, benefiting key {industry} gamers. The agrochemical sector is anticipated to see gradual demand restoration within the latter half of FY25, providing a possible progress increase. Moreover, sure areas throughout the pharmaceutical sector are reporting sturdy progress, significantly in specialised therapies. Corporations which can be advancing in complexity and scale are prone to see substantial long-term advantages.
Whereas some pricing developments have been optimistic, others confirmed a blended image. Costs for Maleic Anhydride and Phthalic Anhydride fell by 3% MoM, resulting in a slight affect on producers in these segments. On the flip aspect, TDI costs elevated by 5% MoM, which benefited producers on this market. Different commodities, comparable to Heavy Soda Ash and Acetic Acid, additionally noticed a lower in costs, down by 3% and a pair of% MoM, respectively.
Wanting forward, the commodity chemical compounds phase is anticipated to keep up a gradual, range-bound development as a consequence of steady home demand. Nevertheless, competitors from Chinese language producers stays a major issue, persevering with to place strain on costs, particularly within the commodity area. Corporations centered on high-value merchandise and people increasing their capabilities into extra advanced and scalable choices are anticipated to carry out higher than these counting on fundamental commodities in the long run.
Essential occasions & updates
Just a few vital occasions of the final month and upcoming ones are as beneath:
- India’s infrastructure output grew by 2% year-on-year in September 2024, recovering from a 1.8% decline within the prior month.
- The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI hit 57.5 in October 2024, up from 56.5 in September, reflecting stronger output progress and a surge in new orders, the quickest in almost 20 years.
- The HSBC India Providers PMI was revised as much as 58.5 in October 2024, surpassing the flash estimate of 57.9 and September’s studying of 57.7. It marked the thirty ninth straight month of progress in providers, pushed by robust gross sales and demand, exceeding expectations of 58.3.
- The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 59.1 in October 2024, up from 58.3 in September, marking 39 months of progress. Stronger new orders in manufacturing and providers boosted gross sales and employment.
- India’s annual inflation price surged to six.21% in October 2024, up from 5.49% in September, exceeding expectations of 5.81% and reaching the very best degree in over a yr. This marks a continued deviation from the RBI’s 4% goal, intensifying expectations of delayed price cuts.
- The US Fed lower their rate of interest by 0.25% this month.
Elementary outlook:
India’s market outlook stays optimistic, regardless of dealing with a number of international and home headwinds. Key financial indicators level to a resilient and adaptive economic system that’s progressively shifting in direction of sustainable progress. Regardless of a difficult October, the home economic system is displaying indicators of underlying power, significantly inside sectors which can be experiencing structural transformations.
Whereas inflation rose to six.21% in October, pushed by meals costs and monsoon affect, stays manageable. The RBI’s vigilant financial coverage and steady foreign exchange reserves provide a strong buffer in opposition to exterior shocks, particularly with foreign exchange reserves remaining nicely above the $600 billion mark. This supplies the central financial institution with flexibility to handle foreign money fluctuations and inflationary pressures, instilling investor confidence in India’s macroeconomic stability.
India’s digitization push continues to realize momentum. The surge in UPI transactions to report highs is a optimistic indicator of accelerating digital adoption throughout the nation. This alerts wholesome progress within the providers sector, with the Providers PMI rising to 58.5 in October. The sturdy demand in providers, alongside India’s robust efficiency in manufacturing, highlights the nation’s various financial base, making it extra resilient to international downturns. Moreover, home energy consumption, although modest, displays a seasonal slowdown quite than a structural decline, pointing to regular demand restoration within the medium time period.
India’s excessive foreign exchange reserves place the nation as some of the well-positioned rising markets globally. The resilience of those reserves, coupled with authorities reforms and strategic fiscal measures, is fostering investor optimism. The steady macroeconomic indicators, together with the supportive insurance policies, are prone to hold India’s progress trajectory intact, even amid international uncertainties.
In conclusion, whereas there are pockets of concern, India’s fundamentals stay robust. The restoration in providers, the rising digital economic system, and a stable fiscal and financial framework paint an optimistic image for the Indian market within the coming months. The nation is poised for regular progress, and long-term buyers might discover favorable alternatives in sectors that capitalize on digital transformation, consumption, and infrastructure growth.
Technical outlook.
The Indian fairness market presents an optimistic outlook because it navigates via short-term volatility. Whereas the most important indices noticed vital declines in October 2024, the market is poised for a possible rebound, supported by robust technical indicators and favorable high-frequency information factors in 2025.
The Nifty 50 index, having confronted a correction in October, is at the moment testing key help zones round 23,800-23,300. These ranges provide potential shopping for alternatives as they align with long-term bullish developments. A profitable rebound from these ranges might sign a transfer in direction of the subsequent resistance zones close to 24,600-25,200, which can set off a extra sustained rally. A break above these resistance factors might pave the way in which for additional upside momentum.
The broader market is witnessing elevated exercise in sectors aligned with India’s progress story. The Providers sector, as indicated by the rise in Providers PMI to 58.5, stays a key space of power, and its continued enlargement helps a optimistic technical outlook for shares associated to digital funds, IT, and client providers.
Different high-frequency indicators proceed to color an optimistic image for India’s long run market outlook. The steady upward trajectory in UPI transactions signifies that the digital economic system will stay a core progress driver. The modest enhance in energy consumption additionally factors to resilience within the home economic system, at the same time as we transfer into winter. This stability is mirrored in India’s foreign exchange reserves, which, whereas barely decrease in October, stay at excessive ranges, offering a stable basis for the Indian Rupee and providing help to broader market sentiment.
The market has skilled a correction primarily as a consequence of disappointing q2 outcomes however because the valuation corrects it supplies good alternative in some pockets.
Outlook for the International Market
US Market:
The U.S. Federal Reserve lately lower rates of interest by 1 / 4 of a share level, decreasing the benchmark in a single day rate of interest to the vary of 4.50% to 4.75%. This transfer displays a recognition of a labor market that has “typically eased” whereas inflation continues to maneuver towards the central financial institution’s 2% goal. The Fed’s determination was unanimous, signaling confidence within the ongoing financial enlargement regardless of a cooling job market. The central financial institution is anticipated to proceed slicing charges, with projections inserting the federal funds price between 3.00% and three.25% by the tip of 2025. This ongoing easing of financial coverage will seemingly proceed to help financial exercise and investor sentiment.
The third-quarter earnings season within the US has largely unfolded as anticipated, with the economic system performing stronger than initially anticipated, regardless of latest rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve. This sturdy progress has allowed most firms to fulfill or exceed earnings expectations. Nevertheless, the main target has shifted to fourth-quarter steering, which has been extra conservative. Regardless of stronger-than-expected financial exercise, many companies are making ready for a slowdown in This fall, resulting in cautious income forecasts.
A optimistic growth has been the effectiveness of cost-cutting measures applied earlier this yr. These efforts have led to improved working margins, serving to firms which have reported stable earnings for Q3, even when their future outlooks are weaker. Whereas firms which have missed earnings expectations have seen vital declines in inventory costs, these with robust outcomes however conservative steering have seen muted reactions. On condition that market valuations stay above honest worth, near-term index appreciation is restricted, however the market might stay overvalued till earnings progress catches up.
Outlook for Gold
Gold costs in India have continued to face strain, with latest market actions indicating that this development might persist via mid-November. As of November 13, 2024, home gold costs reacted to India’s 14-month excessive inflation information, whereas worldwide gold costs have additionally dipped to almost a one-month low. The mix of a robust US greenback and a subdued international financial backdrop has exerted downward strain on the yellow metallic.
On the worldwide entrance, gold costs on COMEX remained underneath $2,600, with a drop of $24, reflecting continued power within the greenback index. In India, gold costs fell by over ₹500 on the MCX, with 10 grams of 22K gold priced at ₹70,840, and 100 grams at ₹708,400. Gold slipped beneath ₹75,000 for the primary time since October 10, 2024. As the worldwide financial atmosphere stays difficult, with inflationary pressures and a robust greenback, the present downtrend suggests additional weak point in gold costs could also be seemingly. If COMEX gold stays beneath $2,600 and checks the $2,500 degree within the coming classes, home costs might fall in direction of ₹72,000 per 10 grams.
Wanting forward, whereas near-term weak point might persist, we imagine gold will proceed to carry its attraction as a safe-haven asset all through 2024, significantly within the face of financial uncertainty and inflationary pressures. This makes gold a gorgeous choice for hedging in opposition to inflation and foreign money volatility. As such, we keep a impartial outlook for gold for the rest of the yr, anticipating its attraction to endure even when costs expertise short-term fluctuations.
What ought to Traders do?
The outlook for the Indian market in November 2024 presents a blended however cautiously optimistic image. Whereas there could also be some continued weak point within the close to time period as a result of ongoing promoting by international portfolio buyers (FPIs) and broader market volatility, a number of components counsel a possible restoration within the coming weeks. The intervention of home institutional buyers (DIIs), who bought ₹1.07 lakh crore price of Indian shares in October, has performed a vital position in mitigating the affect of FPI outflows. Moreover, mutual fund homes are sitting on a major struggle chest of ₹2 lakh crore, which supplies ample help to the market if FPI promoting persists.
The festive season is anticipated to spice up home consumption, probably resulting in stronger Q3 outcomes for firms, significantly in sectors comparable to retail, client items, and autos. This might present a much-needed optimistic catalyst for the market within the close to time period. Moreover, the regulatory framework stays supportive, with the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) and different regulators prone to step in ought to there be any drastic market actions.
Technically, the Indian market is at the moment buying and selling across the 23,600 degree, and whereas there might be some restricted draw back from this level, the robust home help ought to assist cushion the market. The 23,300-23,800 vary is seen as a key help zone, providing engaging entry factors for buyers. Given the basic power of the Indian economic system, which continues to indicate resilience, and the help from home buyers, any short-term dips current a possibility for long-term buyers.
Disclaimer:
This text shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, please seek the advice of your Funding Adviser earlier than making any sound funding determination.
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