Shoppers say they’re worried about the economy’s direction, however these fears aren’t anticipated to look within the March retail gross sales report.

Backed by excessive auto gross sales, customers possible rushed to shops in March to avoid potential price increases spurred by tariffs. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswire and The Wall Avenue Journal count on March retail gross sales information to extend by 1.2% over the prior month. The report is scheduled to be launched on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

“Shoppers fretting over one other spike in items costs attributable to reciprocal and sectoral import tariffs applied in April have been eager to hurry up their deliberate items purchases,” wrote Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Economics. 

Client spending is an important economic factor that has kept the country from recession lately. Economists have stated a slowdown in spending might push the economy closer to a downturn.

Car Gross sales Seen as Driving March Progress

The spending surge would signify an enchancment over the yr’s sluggish begin. February’s meager growth adopted a “holiday hangover” plunge in January.  However whereas the general numbers are anticipated to be good, the report’s particulars could not signify as a lot of an enchancment because it seems. 

Car gross sales are anticipated to drive many of the gross sales development, with early March information exhibiting automobile sales reached their highest level since April 2021. Economists attributed this spike to automobile patrons trying to get forward of U.S. tariffs of 25% on all imported automobiles.

With out the gross sales of vehicles and gasoline, BMO economists count on retail gross sales solely grew by 0.2% in March.

Even with the automobile gross sales, March information isn’t anticipated to be sufficient to rescue retailers from poor first-quarter outcomes, which is anticipated to be the softest for retail gross sales since 2020, Wells Fargo economists wrote.

“On steadiness, efficiency to this point this yr suggests client spending development has stalled within the face of heightened uncertainty about tariffs and their impression on the outlook,” Wells Fargo wrote. 

Spending Slowdown Might Be Coming

A latest spate of poor client sentiment surveys has economists projecting a slowdown in studies like retail gross sales and earnings, but it surely’s not more likely to occur but.

Consumer sentiment has declined for several months as President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff insurance policies have raised considerations about increased inflation and created risky market situations. Nonetheless, many tariffs did not go into impact till April and even then, could not have a lot impact on costs for a while.

“The deterioration in optimism shouldn’t be a constructive growth for client spending, however we do not count on it alone will drive households into hiding,” Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein.