The concept behind the previous adage “as goes January, so goes the 12 months” is that this: if the market closes up in January, it is going to be a very good 12 months; if the market closes down in January, it is going to be a nasty 12 months. In truth, it is among the extra dependable of the market saws, having been proper virtually 9 instances out of 10 since 1950. Final 12 months, January noticed positive aspects of seven.9 p.c for the S&P 500 (the very best January since 1987), predicting an excellent 12 months. Certainly, that’s simply what we bought.

In truth, even when this indicator has missed, it has normally supplied some helpful perception into market efficiency in the course of the 12 months. In 2018, for instance, the January impact predicted a robust market. And it was sturdy—till we bought the worst December since 1931 and the markets pulled again right into a loss, solely to get better instantly and resume the upward climb. Mistaken in line with the calendar, proper over a barely longer interval.

Wall Avenue “Knowledge”?

I’m usually skeptical of this type of Wall Avenue knowledge, however right here there’s not less than a believable basis. January is when traders largely reposition their portfolios after year-end, when positive aspects and efficiency for the prior 12 months are booked. So, the market outcomes actually do mirror how traders, as a bunch, are seeing the approaching 12 months. As investing outcomes are decided in vital half by investor expectations, January can develop into a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is why this indicator is value .

Wanting Forward

So, what does this indicator imply for this 12 months? First, U.S. outperformance—and the outperformance of tech and development shares—is more likely to proceed. Rising markets had been down by virtually 5 p.c in January, and overseas developed markets had been down by greater than 2 p.c. U.S. markets, in contrast, had been down by lower than 1 p.c for the Dow and by solely 4 bps for the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq was up by simply over 2 p.c. Should you imagine on this indicator, then keep the course and give attention to U.S. tech, as that’s what will outperform in 2020.

The issue with that line of pondering is that what drove this month’s outcomes was a traditional outlier occasion: the coronavirus. This virus, or extra precisely the measures taken by governments to manage its unfold, has considerably slowed the economies of a number of rising markets instantly (China and most of Southeast Asia), and it’s beginning to gradual the developed markets by means of provide chain results. The U.S., with a comparatively small a part of its provide chains affected to this point and with minimal direct results, has not been as uncovered—however that development won’t proceed.

In different phrases, what the January impact is telling us this time probably has far more to do with the specifics of the viral outbreak than with the worldwide financial system or markets—and should due to this fact be much less dependable than prior to now.

The Actual Takeaway

What we will take away, nevertheless, is that within the face of an sudden and probably vital danger, the U.S. financial system and markets proceed to be fairly resilient. That resilience will assist if the outbreak will get worse, and it’ll level to sooner development if the outbreak subsides. Both manner, the U.S. seems to be to be much less uncovered to dangers and higher positioned to experience them out after they do occur.

Which, if you concentrate on it, factors to the identical conclusion because the January impact would. Anticipate volatility, however not a major pullback right here within the U.S. over 2020, with the prospect of better-than-expected development and returns. And this isn’t a nasty conclusion to succeed in.

Editor’s Observe: The original version of this article appeared on the Unbiased Market Observer.