Canadian retail gross sales edged up 0.3% in April, Statistics Canada reported Friday, with features in auto gross sales and on-line procuring serving to push whole gross sales previous $70 billion. However the enhance, unfold throughout simply six of 9 sectors, got here in barely under forecasts.

The strongest features got here from motorcar and elements sellers (+1.9%), sporting items, interest, musical instrument and miscellaneous retailers (+1.0%) and residential furnishings, electronics and home equipment retailers (+0.4%).

Notable decreases for April have been recorded at gasoline stations and gas distributors (-2.7%) and clothes, clothes equipment, footwear, jewellery, baggage and leather-based items retailers (-2.2%).

Core retail gross sales—which exclude gasoline stations and motorcar and elements sellers—edged up simply 0.1% in April, down from a 0.2% achieve the month earlier than. Nonetheless, in quantity phrases, retail gross sales jumped 0.9%, pointing to stronger underlying demand.

Regionally, retail gross sales rose in simply 5 provinces, with Saskatchewan (+2.0%) and British Columbia (+1.7%) posting the strongest features. New Brunswick noticed the steepest decline, down 3.1% in April, largely attributable to weaker motorcar and elements gross sales.

On-line procuring additionally recorded a wholesome enhance for April, growing 3.2% to $4.4 billion, representing 6.2% of Canada’s whole retail commerce.

Commerce issues solid shadow over second-quarter outlook

Although April’s knowledge factors to a rebound in shopper spending—pushed largely by early auto purchases forward of anticipated value hikes—indicators of a pullback are already rising. StatCan’s flash estimate for Might suggests a pointy 1.1% decline, as auto gross sales retreat and shopper sentiment turns extra cautious.

“Trying by way of the tariff- and gasoline price-driven swings, the retail gross sales report factors to slowing shopper spending by way of the spring,” wrote BMO’s Shelly Kaushik. “The weak flash estimate for Might, even when largely auto-driven, is per our view that the financial system struggled within the second quarter.”

Economists anticipate shopper spending to weaken within the coming months, with 36% of outlets reporting trade-related impacts in April, together with value will increase, shifting demand and provide chain disruptions.

These tariff-related issues had a noticeable affect, with all 9 retail subsectors reporting unfavourable results on gross sales—even amongst people who posted total month-to-month features, StatCan stated.

TD Economics’ Maria Solovieva additionally flagged weakening shopper exercise, pointing to TD’s inside credit score and debit card knowledge, which confirmed a transparent pullback in spending by way of Might.

“The advance estimate units a somber tone for the second quarter,” she wrote. “As well as, our inside credit score and debit card spending knowledge reveals a significant softening in spending by way of Might, suggesting that buyers tightened their purse strings.

Solovieva added that TD now expects actual private consumption to be flat in Q2, with a possible contraction in Q3 if U.S. tariffs proceed to weigh on sentiment and job prospects.

National Bank economist Daren King additionally sees retail gross sales weakening within the months forward, although he factors to extra elements, together with the affect of wildfires throughout the nation. He famous that the Liberals’ proposed summer time tax reduce may assist “soften the blow,” however underlying issues stay.

“In consequence, a slowdown in consumption stays our base situation for the approaching months,” he stated.

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Final modified: June 20, 2025