Employment rose by simply 7,400 in April, in response to StatCan’s newest report, whereas the unemployment fee climbed 0.2 proportion factors to six.9%.

The share of unemployed Canadians reached its highest degree since November 2024 (and the very best since January 2017, excluding the pandemic years).

The slight improve was typically in step with economists’ expectations, although some forecasts diverse.

The modest achieve was pushed primarily by a 37k surge in public administration jobs, largely because of momentary hiring for the federal election. The finance, insurance coverage, actual property, rental and leasing sector additionally added 24k positions in April, contributing to the general improve.

Employment declined by 31k in manufacturing and 27k in wholesale and retail commerce, largely offsetting the positive aspects in different sectors. The employment fee additionally fell 0.1 proportion factors to 60.8%, its lowest degree since October 2024.

In comparison with March on a year-over-year foundation, the typical worker wage fell 0.2% and solely elevated 3.4% in April. 

Following the info launch, the 5-year bond yield noticed a quick uptick, climbing from 2.79% to 2.80% earlier than slipping again to 2.75% as of the time of writing.

“Canada’s economic system added jobs in April largely because of momentary work for the federal election, however scratch beneath the floor and Canada’s labour market continued to melt. The impression of commerce tariffs seems to be working their means by way of the economic system with job losses in commerce uncovered sectors,” TD’s Leslie Preston wrote in a analysis be aware.

Odds of a 25 bps fee lower in June rise as tariff impacts take maintain

A weakening labour market and mounting tariff impacts are fuelling expectations of a Bank of Canada fee lower on June 4.

Scotiabank’s Derek Holt acknowledges that U.S. tariffs are weighing on the Canadian economic system, however says it stays unclear whether or not their full impression has reached the labour market.

“It’s unclear whether or not tariffs will hit job progress simply but,” he wrote. “Tariffs have hit hiring confidence for pure causes, however a rush to get product out earlier than they’re absolutely binding might help jobs quickly and the capital-to-labour ratio to assembly manufacturing wants might swing in favour of labour relative to extra funding that’s more durable to unwind because the toll on the economic system mounts.”

BMO’s Douglas Porter provides that at present’s report exhibits tariffs are already taking a toll on Canada’s economic system, rising the chance of a fee lower.

“That is the primary main knowledge studying for April, and it exhibits that tariffs are already taking a fabric chunk out of the economic system,” he famous. “This clearly will increase the chances of a 25 bps fee lower in June.”

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Final modified: Might 9, 2025