The one most requested query that I’ve heard since January 20th is:
“How will this new administration have an effect on my inventory, bond and actual property holdings?”
I maintain listening to variations of that query from shoppers, advisors, and the media. The final query displays a priority in regards to the new Trump 2.0 administration’s flurry of actions, particularly DOGE, Elon Musk, layoffs, and different points.
My recommendation is to tune out the noise, flip off the TV, and keep away from the trolling, wild gesticulations, and chaos. As an alternative, focus on what is really taking place.
I admit the final demeanor feels bizarre as a result of there’s been a complete lot extra getting mentioned than performed; far fewer actions than the pronouncements (or acknowledged intentions to carry out actions) all of which can or could not occur.
How most of the 3 million federal civil service staff (not counting army or postal service staff) are actually going to be laid off? Does the manager department have the authority to cancel spending allotted by Congress? What can Elon Musk do?
I don’t know; I doubt a lot of the pundits you hear opining all day lengthy on TV know both. The result of those points won’t be litigated on tv; slightly, will probably be litigated within the federal court docket system, the place it’s alleged to occur.
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It’s troublesome to recollect this when you find yourself overwhelmed by Steve Bannon’s “Flood the Zone ” technique. An ideal instance is the U.S. army exercise overseas. Is Canada about to grow to be the 51st state? Will we retake the Panama Canal by drive? Will Denmark knuckle underneath and promote us Greenland?
That was final week—it looks like months in the past. I don’t know if any of these territorial ambitions will come to fruition (shade me uncertain). However I do see that the noise of those points has wholly overwhelmed any boots-on-the-ground exercise. My recommendation is that traders (principally) ignore these feedback.
Flood the Zone is excellent at exhausting you politically, however don’t let it exhaust your self-discipline as an investor.
One other instance: 47 (the identical man as 45, however a special administration) introduced right this moment that he’s “canceling Manhattan’s congestion pricing.” The MTA yawned on the proclamation. Regardless of all of the sturm und drang, the MTA remains to be accumulating congestion pricing and says it is going to proceed to take action till it’s ordered by a lawful court docket to cease.
What about all these Tariffs? Canada and Mexico? (Nothing performed)
Have there been mass layoffs? (No)
China Tariffs? (Nope)
Has Pentagon spending been lower but? (No)
Ukraine and Russia? (Nyet)
47 is a savvier government than 45; he’s skilled, has his personal individuals in place, appears to have a thought-out plan, and his group is executing that plan. However my focus is on what truly will get put into place and never the noise the media dutifully repeats as if it’s Gospel.
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Recall the period of Trump 1.0, particularly the interval between election day and the inauguration. Throughout that interregnum, 45 started tweeting at firm executives, cajoling, threatening, and in any other case inflicting basic mischief. For the primary few weeks, markets punished firms that obtained 45’s ire. However quickly after, it grew to become clear this was principally bluster, with little or no actual-world penalties. Market (over)response pale.
After November 5, 2024, the Russell 2000 Index gained on hopes that the acknowledged Trump coverage would profit smaller cap firms. That has principally pale, and RUT is now kind of again to the place it was earlier than November 5th. Even the MAGA ETF (after a post-election pop) is once more lagging the S&P 500 (above since election; under, trailing 12 month chart).
To me, the political noise is simply that – a distraction. I recommend you ignore most of what will get mentioned, and give attention to all of the issues that really get completed. These are more likely to embrace massive tax cuts (TCJA gest prolonged 5+ years) and a a lot M&A-friendlier FTC…
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Extra importantly, take note of the broader context of the place we’re right this moment. Again to again years of larger than 20% in equities strongly recommend we decrease expectations for the next 12-24 months.
Context issues way more than noise.
Beforehand:
Why Politics and Investing Don’t Mix (February 13, 2011)
How Much is the Rule of Law Worth to Markets? (August 2, 2021)
Archive: Politics & Investing
See additionally:
Governments are people, my friend (Optimistic Callie, February 18, 2025)
Jobless Claims for the DC Area (Each day Spark, February 18, 2025)
