Federal Reserve officers wrapped up their last assembly of 2024 with splits surfacing over what number of extra rate of interest cuts they need to make given sturdy financial progress, lingering inflation and big uncertainty forward of Donald J. Trump’s return to the White Home.

Weeks later, they unanimously pressed pause on rate cuts and now seem unified of their view that the central financial institution ought to tread fastidiously and take its time to see how the economic system is evolving underneath a brand new administration.

Mary C. Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of San Francisco, reaffirmed that method in an interview on Monday, saying the central financial institution doesn’t “should be pre-emptive at this level.”

“Now we have coverage calibrated for this economic system and the one we anticipate to have, and we’ve acquired time now to be actively watching to see what else is finished,” she mentioned.

The deserves of that technique have been on full show on Monday after Canada and Mexico, two of America’s prime buying and selling companions, narrowly averted steep tariffs in an 11th-hour deal with President Trump.

The prospects of one other commerce struggle — mixed with large-scale deportations, lowered regulation and decrease taxes — have upended economists’ expectations. They’ve additionally muddied expectations about how far more the Fed can decrease charges after lowering them by a full proportion level final yr. Ms. Daly mentioned she was targeted on the “internet impact” of Mr. Trump’s insurance policies, fairly than assessing each individually.

“If a coverage change goes to spur progress, which in the end pushes down inflation, on the similar time that there’s one thing that picks it up a bit of bit, then you definitely don’t know what the online impact goes to be till you have got extra particulars in regards to the coverage,” she mentioned.

“Till we all know extra about scope, magnitude and timing and the way these options transfer by the economic system, then we’re actually doing nothing greater than speculating,” Ms. Daly added. “The simplest approach for a coverage mistake is to take a position.”

Ms. Daly mentioned she was nonetheless “snug” with Fed officers’ projections printed in December, which indicated broad assist for half a proportion level in cuts this yr. That will convey rates of interest right down to a spread of three.75 p.c to 4 p.c.

“I feel we’ve got to have a really open thoughts about whether or not fewer or extra might be wanted,” she mentioned, referring to the variety of cuts.

The vary of outcomes underscores how excessive inflation has complicated the Fed’s job and solid uncertainty about whether or not its outdated playbooks, like these associated to commerce tensions, nonetheless apply.

The final time the Fed confronted a commerce struggle that was led by Mr. Trump, it took early motion to stop the economic system from weakening an excessive amount of. The Fed lowered rates of interest three times over consecutive conferences in the summertime and fall of 2019, motion that was later billed as taking out “insurance coverage” in opposition to the financial impression of his commerce struggle.

“The world is totally different proper now,” Ms. Daly mentioned. “Historical past is a knowledge level, but it surely’s not a playbook.”

On the time of Mr. Trump’s first commerce struggle, inflation was constantly beneath the Fed’s 2 p.c aim and international financial progress forecasts had turned downbeat. Corporations throughout the nation have been additionally starting to retrench, as uncertainty chilled enterprise exercise.

The most important distinction at the moment is that inflation remains to be above 2 p.c. That could be a downside as a result of shoppers and companies are prone to be extra delicate to something which will danger resurgent costs. The Fed could also be compelled to behave if there are indicators that expectations of inflation are getting unmoored — one thing that Ms. Daly mentioned was “important” to have in mind.

“The factor that’s reassuring is that longer-run inflation expectations, which is basically what we preserve our thoughts on, haven’t actually moved in any respect,” she mentioned.

Giving the Fed additional leeway to face pat is a labor market with “no signal” of weak spot, Ms. Daly mentioned. “The economic system is in an excellent place,” she added.

The Fed will monitor the January jobs report, launched on Friday, for any proof that that is altering. Economists anticipate slower progress than the 256,000 positions added in December, partly reflecting annual revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that incorporate new knowledge.

“There’s not pessimism amongst companies,” Ms. Daly mentioned. “In truth, if something, they’re extra optimistic now than they have been within the latter half yr.”